By Anna Sadat Hosseini Fard

Trump thinks about the 2020 Election

October 2, 2017

Surveys released in the United States indicate a decrease in the popularity of this country's president. Since the presidential election in 2016, the popularity of Donald Trump at the White House has dropped dramatically.

The Poll conducted in the University of Quinnipiac suggests that only 36 percent of Americans are satisfied with Trump's performance as President, and most of them believe that Trump does not qualify for the presidency. Undoubtedly, such a low level of general satisfaction can't guarantee Trump's reelection.

Hence, Democrats are trying to participate in the 2020 presidential election more vigorously this time. On the other hand, many Republicans are worried that public discontent with the political approach of Trump will also be reflected in the mid-term or congressional elections scheduled next year. The product of this process would be the loss of the majority of the Senate and the House of Representatives for the Republican Party.

At this time, Trump attempts to deny surveys conducted in the media and even in research centers in the United States and call their results as lies made up by his political opponents. This is due to the fact that many American analysts believe the decrease of Trump's popularity trend has been tangible in recent months.

 Beyond that, it should not be forgotten that Trump could won the rival candidate Hillary Clinton in the United States last year only through the electoral system. This was while the general votes casted for Trump was about 3 million less than that for Hillary Clinton. Therefore, the negative attitude of U.S. citizens towards the presence of Trump at the White House is not an intangible issue.

Democrat Hillary Clinton has recently called for reform of the Electoral Structure in the United States. If this reform is to take place, in 2020 we will see US presidential elections based on citizens' votes, and then Trump will not have the power to win the election again. However, the drop in the popularity of Trump shows that even if the election is again held based on the Electoral system, this time he will have less chance of winning compared with 2016. The survey results show that Trump's popularity in those pendulum states, which do not traditionally belong to either Democratic or Republican Party, has declined consistently along with other U.S. states.

In such a situation, Trump will do anything he can to be in power again! One of these efforts is to infuse threat and insecurity to U.S. foreign policy environment, just as Bush Jr did in years between 2001- 2004, and thus became able to secure his victory in the 2004 presidential election. At that time, John Kerry, as Democratic Party candidate, could not take action against Bush, because the media, political space formed in the United States, on the basis of false ideas and components, caused the re-election to the Republicans benefit.

Many analysts believe that one of the main reasons for recent tensions made by Trump in U.S. foreign policy, especially on North Korea, is the same. Trump knows well that if Republicans are to miss Congressional mid-term elections in the coming year and lose the majority of the House of Representatives and the Senate, he will face the common tensions of the two main US parties. In this case, the probability of Trump's defeat in the presidential election of 2020 will also increase.

Trump's intense approach in foreign policy, the incapacity of the U.S. president to abolish Obama Care project, increasing dissatisfaction of Washington's European partners with the White House, dissatisfaction of American exporters and importers with Trump and confrontation with U.S. security agencies over Russia's involvement in presidential elections has made many Trump's supporters regret their decision to support him. 

During the U.S. presidential campaign last year, many U.S. citizens did not have a positive attitude towards the former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Also, many Democrats nominees Barney Sanders supporters preferred to cast their votes for Donald Trump. It should be noted that after the disclosure of controversial emails among Democrat leaders (which marked their illegal support from Hillary Clinton), many Sanders supporters were outraged by Clinton. This issue also showed itself at the final Democratic congress. Ultimately, many Sands fans, casted their votes for Trump, and provided his victory in some states. Even Sanders' recommendations to his fans to support Clinton in the U.S. presidential election could not have any effect.

Trump is now worried about the loss of his popularity with American voters. This has actually happened, and it is obvious that under such circumstances, if Trump is questioned by Congress or resigns, he will not see support from public opinion. This is the worst possible news for Trump and his entourage at the White House.

 On the other hand, the path taken by Trump's to U.S. foreign policy is not such as to increase his popularity in public opinion. Hence, the downward trend in the popularity of the controversial U.S. president seems to continue. However, Trump is worried about the failure of the presidential election in 2020. A plausible point is that some U.S. media have also called for Trump to resign from power before the next presidential election.

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