Seyyed Mohammad Eslami

Iran and the changing world order

February 18, 2017

“Painful to be an American right now.” This is a sentence by Francis Fukuyama, author of the famous book “The End of History and the Last Man”. He tweeted this sentence after a war of words between President Donald Trump and the Australian prime minister.

This is a sentence by Francis Fukuyama, author of the famous book “The End of History and the Last Man”. He tweeted this sentence after a war of words between President Donald Trump and the Australian prime minister.World order nightmare
International order is under the shadow of Trump’s American nationalism. He does not follow a particular foreign policy doctrine; he even doesn’t care about the international responsibility of the United States. But the concern is not just about Trump and his slogan of “Make America Great Again”. 

Questions asked in Munich

Some famous political dignitaries have gathered in Munich to discuss the main future challenges in the world. Post-Order is one of their key questions. “Post-Truth, Post-West, Post-Order?” is title of the Munich Security Report 2017. Everyone knows that international order is on the edge of change. What is the realistic answer to the current chaotic world?

A chaotic world beyond Trump

Trump promised his supporters to stop serving others in the cost of American citizens. He is trying to fulfill his promises. Members of EU and NATO are really worried about him. But uncertainties in world politics goes beyond the Trump presidency. Most of international institutions were inefficient even prior to the emergence of Trump. There were and there are big question marks about the competence of the UN, UN Security Council, EU, NATO, etc. A number of global crises remain unresolved before Trump took the helm at the White House. He's a disaster. There is no doubt. But he is not to blame for these disasters.

Iran and the upcoming order

Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has attended the Munich security conference. He is accompanied by his deputy Abbas Araghchi who is the head of the committee to monitor the implementation of the nuclear deal, officially called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). 
Challenges to the implementation of the JCPOA will be an issue in the conference. 
As an international deal, the JCPOA proved that the idea of isolating Iran does not work and that it does not serve the interest of other countries in the global village.

The decade ahead

While the JCPOA is an issue for current world politics, it is also a matter of future world order. The commitments under the deal must be fulfilled for more than a decade. 
In the decade ahead, the strategic alliance of China and Europe in terms of energy consumption will replace the European-American polarity as the United States is lessening its dependence on crude oil by tapping large reserves of tight oil and shale gas. 
Middle East will also change dramatically. Arab monarchies most likely face a public request for democracy. At that moment, it is not clear that if there is a reliable United States to rely on it. It seems there is an urgent need for frank and pragmatic dialogue. Iran is ready, what about others?

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